So Fucking Close!

The Springboks nearly beat the All Blacks in Christchurch this past weekend; they lead 21-18 going into the final minute, when NZ strung 15 phases together which ended in a Doug Howlett try a few seconds after full time, for a 23-21 final score. For the record, I predicted a Bok win here, so fuck everybody who picked NZ to win in a blowout. (And if you're a gambler and you bet on the Boks, well done. Sacrifice something to the gods of the point spread.)

Not only was I very nearly the Amazing Creskin of rugby, but the game itself was determined exactly the way I preducted it, namely a game of passion versus execution, and it could have gone either way. The All Blacks enjoyed more than 70% of possession, but they never even really looked like scoring until that final drive. South Africa's defense was absolutely relentless; the two moments of the match for me, in ascending order, were Schalk Burger chasing down Joe Rococoko's first real break past the advantage line, and Os du Randt's 15-meter cross-field chase and try saving tackle on Rococoko.

Oh, did I mention that the Boks had 3 tries to New Zealand's 1? South Africa might not have seen much ball, but virtually every time they were able to string together a back play, they ended up either scoring or coming threateningly close. Breyton Paulse nearly set up two tries off of chip kicks, and Jacques Cronje managed to drop a pass that, if caught, would have set up a three man overlap and undoubtedly a try. On the tactical front, I thought the Springboks kicked away too much possession, given the success they were having with every multi-phase drive, although I understand the argument for reducing the odds of having handling errors, especially on their own side of the pitch. Percy Montgomery made a couple of errant clearance kicks, but was otherwise superb, and contributed 3 very difficult conversion goals. The one major weakness of the Boks' game was in scrummaging---but then, to the surprise of most observers, including me, New Zealand's pack has been thoroughly dominant in scrums this entire season. John Smit, by the way, was an inspired choice as captain. In addition to his leadership skills, he is simply a world-class hooker [nice phrase--ed.], whose loose play and lineout throws are equal to those of any international hooker, if not better.

Like I said, with discipline, the new-look Springboks are world-beaters. Jake White seems to know how to manage winning rugby, which is more than can be said for most recent SA coaches, and given the youth of his side (excluding du Randt), I don't think it's too early to start expecting a major upswing in South African rugby. But who knows; New Zealand managed to win two games at home by small and shrinking margins. I'd say that even this year's Tri-Nations is still wide open, and I'm going to stick with my pick of South Africa.