Debate Fallout

Kerry's ahead again. Which means that those of you (you know who you are) who were assuring me that a Bush victory is inevitable need to pull your heads out of your asses ASAP.

Why is Kerry ahead? Because he's running against a man who is constitutionally incapable either of dealing with criticism or allowing reality to interfere with his comfortable view of the world. Hence, this. (Related: has anyone else noticed that the case for Kerry is entirely conservative?)

OTOH, whoever allowed this photo-op to happen needs to be fired (hat tip: Andrew Sullivan). And if it was Kerry, we might be in trouble.

UPDATE: Gallup has the race tied 49-49 among LV's, Bush ahead 49-47 among RV's. As we've already discussed, Gallup is not a credible polling organization. They use methodologies that have been outdated for decades and are unapologetic about a fatally flawed Likely Voter screen. (Indeed, their RV numbers on the eve of elections tend to be more accurate than their LV numbers.) The really bizarre thing about this poll is that Kerry does better among LV's than RV's. It doesn't work that way, unless the sample is disproportionately tilted towards Republicans. Democrats should always do better on RV numbers. What the Gallup numbers suggest, however, is a massive post-debate swing towards Kerry. The Newsweek poll showed a similar shift. Obviously these polls have to be taken with a grain of salt---they wildly overestimate the persuadable portion of the electorate; but nevertheless, there is something going on at the deep structural level of this campaign, and it augurs well.