Advancing Through The Battleground

If you've been following the excellent horse-race coverage at Donkey Rising (see link to the right), you've noticed that John Kerry is enjoying substantial leads among independent voters both in terms of their vote preference and their opinion on the major issues of the campaign.

Now some support for the trend: according to this electoral vote tracker, Kerry 322, Bush 205, with Kerry projected to win Ohio, Missouri, and Florida, and Tennessee dead even, all of them red states in 2000. This site has Kerry at 322, Bush at 216, presumably giving Bush Tennessee's 11 votes. On the other hand, only 55 of Bush's 216 votes are deemed uncertain (as opposed to likely), compared to 137 of 322 for Kerry---though even under this analysis, Kerry leads Bush 185-161 among likely electoral votes.

I'll go out on a limb here: If Kerry wins Ohio or Missouri or Florida, let alone two or all three of them, he will win the election.