Polls, Polls, Polls

According to this Greenberg poll, Kerry leads 52-44 among likely voters (if Kerry's got more than 50% popular support, this thing's over). This Annenberg poll shows Kerry increasing his substantial advantages among independents. According to this ARG poll, Kerry leads 50-43 in Florida, and according to this one, leads 49-42 in New Hampshire. (All links provided by Donkey Rising.)

A question for aspiring pundits. Coming out of the convention, you look at poll numbers that show some movement in Kerry's direction, note that he went into the convention in a very strong position for a challenger, and also note that at most about 7% of the electorate is undecided, essentially ruling out large "bounces" of the Clinton-Gore 1992 variety. Do you A) start writing post-mortems on the Kerry campaign (Instapundit has yet to report on the poll numbers---I'd expect better from him)? or, B) report that the convention had some positive impact for the Democrats in the overall campaign, and take your time in making any pronouncements about the about its lasting effect? Considering that the bounce appears to be real and Kerry's lead is increasing a week out from the DNC, I think B is the less foolish option by a wide margin. But that's just me.