299-239

That's my final electoral college prediction. From the 2000 blue/red breakdown, Bush picks up New Mexico and Iowa. Kerry picks up New Hampshire, Ohio, and Florida, and thus the presidency.

I'm assuming (what else can I do) that the bin Laden tape doesn't have any net impact on the election.

If my scenario pans out, except that Kerry loses Florida (which is the final prediction a lot of people are making), then the numbers would be Kerry 272, Bush 266. In that situation, every single state decides the election. Just imagine if Kerry takes Ohio and New Hampshire, Bush takes Iowa and New Mexico, and we have to wait until early early morning for the last result...when Bush, somehow, takes Hawaii and wins. I'm going to try not to think about that.

UPDATE: Slate's final pre-election tally matches my prediction. Goddamnit I'm good.