Debate Afterglow

The polls prove it: Kerry won decisively.

CNN: 53-39. 52-53% is sounding more and more like Kerry's final share of the popular vote.

ABC: 42-41 (but the sample was disproportionately Republican).

CBS: 39-25 (which suggests that people are getting exhausted with the debates---I don't blame them).

William Saletan thinks Kerry hit a grand slam:

By the time the clock had ticked down to 15 minutes, the balance of power onstage had shifted. Kerry was the one talking like a president. He complimented his opponent as a leader and father, pledged to work across the aisle, admitted with a twinkle that "I can sometimes take myself too seriously," and joked to Schieffer, "The president and you and I are three examples of lucky people who married up." The audience laughed, and Kerry, growing looser by the minute, took another poke at himself: "And some would say maybe me more so than others." The audience laughed again, and Kerry relaxed into the smile of a man who has been humbled by the toughest campaign of his life and believes that despite it all, he is about to win. "But I can take it," he shrugged, beaming through a goofy grin. Bush, sensing that everyone else was having a good time, tried to smile along, but all he could do was twist up one corner of his mouth. His eyes darted around the room as though trying to make sense of a nightmare.

The closing statements confirmed the tide of the race. Kerry spoke like a man closing a deal. He recalled his service to his country, promised "tested, strong leadership that can calm the waters of the troubled world," and vowed to protect the nation in the tradition of FDR, JFK, and Reagan. Bush spoke like a man pleading for a second chance. He fumbled his opening sentence. He talked about the hard times we'd been through and the good things he'd do in a second term that he hadn't done in his first. He called for faith and optimism. Kerry ended with the words of a president: "Thank you, goodnight, and God bless the United States of America." Bush ended with a plea: "I'm asking for your vote. God bless you."

As Saletan notes elsewhere, Kerry smiled off Bush's attacks the way Reagan used to. No doubt he thinks he's going to win. I can't tell if Bush does.

And if the debate itself damaged Bush, Kevin Drum points out, the fodder he provided the media is going to impale him:

GAFFE WATCH....I have to believe the biggest gaffe of the night was Bush's when he said:

Gosh, I just don't think I ever said I'm not worried about Osama bin Laden. It's kind of one of those ex-a-gger-ations.

Of course, two years ago he said exactly that:

I don’t know where he is. Nor — you know, I just don’t spend that much time on him really, to be honest with you. I....I truly am not that concerned about him.

Bush's statement was obviously a lie, and it lends itself so well to a video comparison that it's probably going to get played over and over and over. It was a big mistake to give news and talk shows such a good excuse to play that old video again. [Emphasis mine.]

It's hard to conceive of something the Bush campaign would want less than to see this clip of Bush on a news network feedback loop. It does first order damage because it shows conclusively that Bush lied. But it's the second order damage---showing a lot of people who were previously unaware that Bush did say he was unconcerned with Osama bin Laden---that could be fatal to the re-election campaign.

P.S. Last night I called Kerry's shout-out to Mary Cheney "toxic." Andrew Sullivan defends Kerry:

I keep getting emails asserting that Kerry's mentioning of Mary Cheney is somehow offensive or gratuitous or a "low blow". Huh? Mary Cheney is out of the closet and a member, with her partner, of the vice-president's family. That's a public fact. No one's privacy is being invaded by mentioning this. When Kerry cites Bush's wife or daughters, no one says it's a "low blow." The double standards are entirely a function of people's lingering prejudice against gay people. And by mentioning it, Kerry showed something important. This issue is not an abstract one. It's a concrete, human and real one. It affects many families, and Bush has decided to use this cynically as a divisive weapon in an election campaign. He deserves to be held to account for this - and how much more effective than showing a real person whose relationship and dignity he has attacked and minimized? Does this makes Bush's base uncomfortable? Well, good. It's about time they were made uncomfortable in their acquiescence to discrimination. Does it make Bush uncomfortable? Even better. His decision to bar gay couples from having any protections for their relationships in the constitution is not just a direct attack on the family member of the vice-president. It's an attack on all families with gay members - and on the family as an institution. That's a central issue in this campaign, a key indictment of Bush's record and more than relevant to any debate. For four years, this president has tried to make gay people invisible, to avoid any mention of us, to pretend we don't exist. Well, we do. Right in front of him.

I have to say I find this rather persuasive. Kerry's comment---because it was blunt, and because the question was essentially about what basic dignity gay people deserve---compares favorably to Edwards' attempt at the same thing. Nevertheless, "toxic," I think, is the right word for a political culture in which votes can be leveraged by appealing directly to inborn prejudice against gay people.