Learning From History

All this (deserved) emphasis on the Shadow Campaign doesn't pay enough attention to the real historical precedent for this election, which is 1980.

Then, as now, the incumbent president faced a significant and growing public perception that his policies both domestically and abroad had failed, that the nation's standing in the world had been crippled, and that, in short, it was time for a new administration and a new party. Reagan was elected as much for being the un-Carter as for the popularity of his own platform, but he was able, unlike Kerry so far, to convince the electorate that he was the man to replace the incumbent. On the substructural level, this election clearly favors the challenger. If Kerry could get his act together (or maybe, if Edwards does it for him), Kerry could achieve something like a 55-45 win, a landslide by today's standards.

And if Edwards is responsible for lifting the Kerry campaign into frontrunner status, the Dems will have Dick Cheney to thank. Prior to Cheney, vice presidential nominees were little more than formal appendages to a campaign. But Cheney has enlarged the informal powers of the vice presidency so much Edwards might well play a crucial role in ousting the incumbents.