I Called It

After the first New Zealand-Australia match had been played, but before the South Africans played any of their Tri-Nations matches, I picked the Springboks to win the whole thing. They came very, very close twice, losing to last-minute tries, including one after full-time by Doug Howlett. But now the series has swung back to South Africa, and this weekend, at Ellis Park in Johannesburg, the Springboks beat the All Blacks 40-26, 5 tries to 2, by far the most convincing win of the series so far. The Boks had better than a 50% advantage in territory and possession, and Percy Montgomery missed about half of his 11 or 12 goal attempts, so the scoreline, if anything, reflects a closer match than what really took place.

The South African backline simply owned New Zealand. Andrew Mehrtens had a fine day kicking both tactically and for points, but he left a huge hole in the defensive line which the Boks ran right through all day. De Wet Barry and Marius Joubert (the latter had a hat-trick) could not be contained by Mehrtens, Sam Tuitupou, and Tana Umaga, while Breyton Paulse, who also had a try, made 5 or 6 huge and potentially game breaking tackles---I hope Joe Rococoko and Doug Howlett were taking notes on what defensive play on the wings looks like. In the forward contest, New Zealand once again brought a huge scrum, but the Boks outplayed them otherwise. Joe van Niekerk not only proved to be back up to fitness, but, just as I predicted, paired with Schalk Burger to shut down the New Zealand attack, especially at the fringes. Van Niekerk also demonstrated aa talent that has been rather lacking in international Eightmen lately, namely the ability to pick up at scrums and make the advantage line.

South Africa go into next week's test against Australia with a better points differential than the Aussies, meaning that whoever wins the match, regardless of bonus points will win the Tri-Nations (i.e. if Australia lose by less than 7 and score four tries, earning two bonus points, they will tie with South Africa for 11 points total, and South Africa break the tie on PF vs. PA). So who knows? Anything could still happen (except NZ winning). But right now, I look like a goddamn psychic. There might have been plenty of Springbok fans who picked their team to win for sentimental reasons, but who, besides me, picked South Africa to be the best southern hemisphere team? I'd like to know.

UPDATE: On the Planet Rugby website, a reader named Jean-Pierre Starke Nel, from Centurion, South Africa, made this prediction: We are not going to beat Australia next week, we are going to murder them. We destroyed the No.1 team today. We will bury the No.2." Er, right. There's a fucking Afrikaaner! Seriously though, it would be a pity if the Boks lose due to overconfidence.