269-269

Of course, even though I think my prediction has the best chance of obtaining of any single scenario (or else it wouldn't be my prediction), it's still an underdog relative to all the possible ways the electoral college could break down. Among these are a variety of ways that we could end up in a 269-269 tie.

Here are the ones that seem most plausible to me (all pick-ups refer to disparity with the 2000 vote):

• Kerry picks up New Hampshire and Nevada
• Kerry picks up New Hampshire and Florida; Bush picks up New Mexico, Iowa, and Wisconsin (or Minnesota)
  
• Kerry picks up New Hampshire and Ohio; Bush picks up New Mexico and Wisconsin (or Minnesota)
  
• Kerry picks up New Hampshire, Ohio, and Florida; Bush picks up Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin
• Kerry picks up Ohio; Bush picks up Iowa and Hawaii

If any of these scenarios play out, we're stuck in the most momentous game of rock, paper, scissors ever (or maybe the Democrats won't even put up a fight).