To Be Taken With A Grain Of Salt

Via e-mail:

According to Drudge, [the early exit polls] are favorable to Kerry.

"...first wave of exit polls which show Kerry
competitive in key states, campaign and media sources
tell DRUDGE.... National Election Pool -- representing
six major news organization -- shows Kerry in striking
distance -- with small lead -- in Florida and Ohio"

I do know better than to trust Drudge, but this certainly counts as an admission against interest.

UPDATE: Wonkette's numbers:

AZ 45-55
CO 48-51
LA 42-57
MI 51-48
WI 52-48
PA 60-40
OH 52-48
FL 51-48
MICH 51-47
NM 50-48
MINN 58-40
WISC 52-43
IOWA 49-49
NH 57-41
[emphases mine]

I don't know how reliable early exit polls are; I don't know what's going on with the double (and inconsistent) entry for Michigan; but I know I'd rather been on the positive side of those scores. If the Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and New Hampshire numbers are even close to accurate, we might be on the verge of a Kerry landslide.

If I had to handicap things right now, I'd say Kerry winning with >300 EV is about an 8:1 shot, equivalent to making an inside straight. Inside straights happen. And the odds get shorter if these numbers hold up.

ANOTHER UPDATE: A friend working for the Kerry GOTV effort in Pennsylvania reports that Kerry has already effectively won Oregon (where voting is conducted entirely by absentee ballots counted on election day). She says that about 70% of the votes are in/counted, and Kerry already has a decisive margin. Think about what that means. Oregon was always a blue state, but usually within 5-10 points. If Kerry is already the definite winner in Oregon with 30% of the votes outstanding, that sounds indicative of a very strong Kerry position nationally.