The Tri-Nations Are Not Over

Just when you've resigned yourself to another New Zealand victory...Australia wins 23-18, and breaks the tournament wide open. There's even room---although it would take literally optimal performances from the Boks---for South Africa to pull this thing out. The Springboks do have one big advantage, namely the remaining matches are going to be played in SA. Step one for their victory is beating the All Blacks. I think they have a very good chance of doing just that. The X-factor in the match is Andrew Mehrtens, who will finally replace Carlos "Overrated" Spencer at flyhalf. In terms of consistency, intelligent decision-making, mental and physical toughness, and goal-kicking, there's no question that Mehrtens is the better pivot. But it's been an awfully long time since his last start in a test match. The ABs will also be sorely missing inside center [centre?--ed.] Daniel Carter. X-factor #2 is Joe van Niekerk, who is making his own return after a long injury layoff at No. 8. At his best, Niekerk is one of the most dominating loose forwards in the world on both sides of the ball. If he's on form, I expect him and Schalk Burger to shut down the New Zealand attack more or less completely.

I'm done making predictions, except that this will be a nail-biter. What do I hope for in the match? For the good of rugby, I want SA to win. For the general good of humanity, I want Mehrtens to play well enough to keep the No. 10 jersey off Spencer's back.